Tuesday 28 April 2015

Voting criteria for 7 May 2015



One aspect of the imminent General Election in the UK that is uniting garrulous pundits and expert psephologists is the exciting unpredictability of its outcome.

If the pre-election opinion surveys are accurate, it would appear that Scotland is thinking about consigning Labour to a fate similar to what it bestowed on the Conservatives in reaction to the impact of “Thatcherism” a few decades ago.  
This is a nadir from which it has not recovered north of the border.

In England, it is expected that UKIP may steal a march on the Conservatives in certain areas.  It may also jolt Labour out of its torpor in others; while the Greens have eco-eyes set on Labour votes in several constituencies.

It may even be that UKIP, in the parlance of Northern Ireland’s politics, might split the Conservative vote and cause a Labour victory by default in one or two places.  
Similarly, the Green Party might split the Labour vote in others and open up success for the Conservatives.   
A YouGov survey suggests that some Conservative voters in Scotland might do the unthinkable and vote Labour to keep the SNP from wielding influence.

Mature voters will have noticed that the Conservatives have been criticised for courting what is condescendingly termed the “grey vote.”  This is a reference to enticements such as the pensioner savings bonds, freeing access to pension annuities, and the like.

Conservative leaders have also been criticised by Labour of talking up the SNP’s prospects, allegations which add spice to an already tasty haggis.  
Speculation abounds as to the role of smaller parties in the event of a hung Parliament in which neither of the two big parties have sufficient MPs to form a single party majority Government.

Who knows what is best and what will happen?  
Observers delight in the glorious uncertainty of it all.  
At the same time, this feeling is tinged with not a little concern about the need for statesmanship, strong leadership and good government in a growingly dangerous world.

In the circumstances, the new MPs at Westminster will have demonstrate responsibility and prioritise the national interest after the votes are counted.

Opportunity for Northern Ireland voters

Austin Currie was a Minister in an earlier but short-lived incarnation of Northern Irish regional administration.  His response to criticism about the quality of our elected representatives was to resort to the adage - “you get the politicians you deserve.”  Or vote for.

There are key questions for voters in Northern Ireland when they weigh up the electoral options this time round that they have not faced up to seriously before.   
Do we really want to preserve the status quo, or is it not time to shake things up a bit?  Might it be worth thinking about changing the voting habits of a lifetime? To try and make it a better place? 
What are the benefits for our children and grandchildren, if the electorate continues to treat the election to the national Parliament of the UK as a regional event?

A total of 138 candidates are contesting the 18 available seats at Westminster.
Three of the UK’s national parties – the Greens, UKIP, and the Conservatives (but not Labour) - are actively campaigning in Northern Ireland constituencies.  Unprecedented perhaps.  
In which case, is it not opportune for voters to abandon parochial politics and instead think nationally and globally?

There is a prima facie case to support the prospect of voting Conservative or Green Party on 7 May.  
The attraction of the Green Party is its abiding conviction and evidence-based concern for the environment.  
They are also radically opposed to Conservative and Labour Party record and policies on the national economy.   
The Greens provide a centre-left voting option in the absence of Labour.

The Conservative Party is fielding candidates in 16 of the Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies.   
Leave aside reservations about issues such as the Conservative Party’s attitude to Europe, failure to deliver on key elements of their mandate five years ago (especially on the deficit), the refusal to raise taxes for that purpose, the impact of cut-backs on public services and deprived areas, and the growth of food banks in one of the world's richest countries.  

If that is not asking too much, Northern Ireland voters could take a leap and ditch ingrained electoral behaviour to vote for the only one of the two national parties standing here which will produce the next Prime Minister of the UK.

Awkward as it may be for some, or maybe for many, to countenance and act on this proposition, a combination of difficult times internationally, national economic imperatives, and the onward march of a new century endorse the need for bold steps by citizens in deciding who to entrust with their mandate.

Electoral apathy

The fact that many people still complain about the performance of our local politicians and a lack of political leadership are grounds for a radical rethink.  
For those who say they don’t vote here because sectarian politics disinterests them, this General Election is their chance to exercise their democratic right.

Without saying where he sources his statistics, a Belfast journalist claims that almost half of the eligible electorate of Northern Ireland does not vote[1].   
This shocking fact appears to include those who choose not to register as well as those who choose not to use their registered vote. 
  
Whereas the victorious candidates will “represent” the majority of those who have voted in a particular constituency, it means that the MP’s mandate falls well shy of the majority of his constituents, those registered as well as those unregistered.   
This is especially true where candidates may be competing with as many as eight others for the privilege to attend or abstain at Westminster.  
How can they legitimately claim to be representitive?

Nelson Mandela confounded the established political mores and ways of doing things in South Africa, a long march to freedom.  He provided leadership after years of incarceration, making peace with his oppressors and winning global respect.  
If the majority of voters truly are displeased with Northern Ireland’s political leadership, an opportunity beckons. Failure to accept this challenge and a consequent continuation of things as they are could mean that the complainers should forfeit their case.
  
If Northern Ireland’s politicians won’t provide radical thinking, should the people not show them how?

Positive reasons in favour of changing voting habits

The following bullet points summarise factors which Northern Irish voters might consider to inform their voting strategy on May 7. 
  
The first list is a range of positive reasons in favour of voting either for the Green Party or else for the party which takes its name from a beautiful place off the Ulster coast in Donegal, Tory Island.

·         This is a national election, whose outcome is determined with reference to national and international policies.

·         Labour is not standing in Northern Ireland; while the Conservative Party platform includes its claim to be the party of working people (manifesto launch 14042015).  In the last election, the Conservative leader changed his colour from blue to green.  Are we now seeing another transformation - Red Dave?

·         The UK needs a stable Government to restore the country’s economic fortunes and do more about social cohesion.  Having failed to deliver in one term and aware of Conservatives’ bravado that Labour is inimical to business, the Conservative Party manifesto and claims need be tested and rigorously held to account for a further term.  A second failure will not easily be forgiven.

·         Labour deserted the working people of the UK in 1997.  Its profligacy, adhering to bankrupt monetarist policies and deregulation of financial services merit another five years of sack cloth and ashes on the back benches as penance.

·         If Northern Ireland wants to be on the winning side, voting Conservative could earn dividends (the language of capitalism which is understood by Conservatives).

·         If the Conservative constituency candidate is able and dynamic, she/he may be worth voting for.  For those who are on the centre-left, examine the Green Party candidate’s credentials.

Additional reasons for changing voting behaviour

This second group lists negative reasons for doing the same thing (this is Northern Ireland after all).   
These reasons are secondary yet supportive, reflecting the alternative options and as such focus on the track record of Northern Ireland’s regional political parties.

·         Northern Ireland’s established parties are obsessed with regional and deep-rooted historical issues.  Given Northern Ireland’s protracted habit of tribal voting and taking account of the performance by our regional government compared to Scotland, it might just be time to teach the DUP, Sinn Fein, and other parties a lesson for the sake of future generations.

·         What is taking place on 7 May is a General Election, not an independence referendum, not a border poll, not a vote for or against retaining a kingdom united. The SNP leader made this point at the launch of her party's manifesto and it does not seem to be harming their electoral prospects.  As a General Election, therefore, different selection criteria apply in the choice of which candidate for whom to vote.

·         The exclusion by the national broadcasters of the Northern Ireland parties from the televised debates (and the failure of the DUP to implement its bellicose threat of legal action) provides an unspoken yet clear statement about the relevance of Northern Ireland’s political parties to the UK and its electorate.  Loyalty unrequited.

·         Northern Ireland’s parties have disappointed many with their track record in governance, particularly given the high relative cost to the public purse.  Low marks on performance indicators.  Devolution has been dogged by frequent impasse and threats of collapse of its institutions.  Is this what the Northern Ireland electorate deserves?  By stark contrast, the SNP commands such public support based on governing Scotland (“our kith and kin”) in a deliberately consensual manner.  As a result of its popularity and efficiency, it is expected to make sweeping gains in the General Election.  One UK journalist describes the SNP surge as “more like a tsunami.”[2]

·         Voting DUP is a waste of a vote.  Another UK journalist describes them as “political extremists” adding that “while the Tories shamelessly fan anti-Scottish resentment, one of their likely coalition partners (DUP) is a homophobic, creationist, anti-women throwback to several centuries ago.[3] As potential kingmakers in a hung Parliament, the DUP demand for an extra £1b over and above the normal subvention for Northern Ireland’s overwhelmingly public sector economy is questioned as “mercenary."[4]   Loyalty must be a scarce commodity as it comes at a premium price.

·         Voting Sinn Féin is a waste of a vote.  Why mandate politicians to a legislature from which they will continue to absent themselves?  Groucho Marx’s false modesty quip about not wanting to belong to an institution that would have somebody like him as a member takes on a whole new meaning.  Ourselves Alone is a party whose very name is the antithesis of internationalism and being outward looking.   The party’s manifesto knows no shame, outbidding the DUP with a demand of £1.5 billion from UK taxpayers.  If loyalty does not come cheap, the expected reward for absenteeism is colossal.


Conclusion

So, what do we deserve?  More of the same?  
Stop moaning, think positive.
It’s time to decide.


©Michael McSorley 2015


[1] “Don’t vote and the big parties carry on with the smug assumption they own this place.” Malachi O’Doherty Belfast Telegraph 21 April 2015
[2] Matthew Parris The Times 25 April 2015 pp 8-9
[3] Owen Jones The Guardian 25 April 2015
[4] Evan Davis BBC2 Newsnight 16 April 2015